Forecasting Solar Particle Events
Forecasting solar particle events will usher in a new era of Space Meteorology. The Local Interstellar Cloud is an integral part of our solar system that moves the sun with a force equal and opposite to the integral of the momentum generated by its 27 km/s 14,000 second pass through the Sun. We apply Newton’s 3rd Law — Every action has an equal and opposite reaction — to the Sun and LIC. The density of the approaching LIC in 40,000 second intervals, combined with the circumference and volume of the Sun, should reveal the average density of the Local Interstellar Cloud.
The question remains: can we forecast solar storms? Well, LIC takes 24,000,000 hours to pass through the solar system. Information travels at 299,792 km/s and takes a mere 133,426 minutes to pass through the solar system. Information travels much faster than the Local Interstellar Cloud, so in principle we can forecast solar storms with plenty of time to spare. In fact, theoretical calculations suggest we can predict magnetic disturbances sure to induce solar flares roughly 11 years in advance — very similar to the Solar Cycle. I strongly feel that the fine structure constant and the spectral optical depth of the local interstellar cloud are part of the formula to predict solar flares and properly understand starspots and the solar cycle.
Space Meteorologists’ purpose is to study the Sun to protect astronauts from violent Solar Eruptions. If Solar Eruptions are incited by the Local Interstellar Cloud, and spacecraft continue to detect variations in the Radiation budget of the Local Interstellar Cloud, Space Meteorology can be extended further than the brink of our solar system, which means faster and better predictions for Solar Eruptions. Solar cycle 24 is projected to hit the Solar Minimum as early as the first 1/2 of 2018. Hopefully, by the time solar Cycle 25 comes to an end, Heliophysicists on the solar cycle prediction panel will have improved their accuracy through conceptually grasping the great particle accelerator in the sky.
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